2009 US OPEN PREVIEW

After watching Roger Federer sweep past Andy Murray and Novak Djokovic back to back as he won the Masters 1000 tournament in Cincinnati, I was convinced he was playing his best tennis of the year, taking his game to a higher level than he had at the French Open and Wimbledon. That was his fourth victory in his last five tournaments, and there was no doubt in my mind that Federer believed he was right on course to step forward over the next fortnight and win a sixth United States Open in a row.

Now, he must be even more confident after seeing the draw for the Open. Federer could confront former world No. 1 Lleyton Hewitt in the third round, but he just cast the Australian aside with consummate ease in Cincinnati and has not lost to his Australian rival since 2003. Federer could meet Tommy Robredo or James Blake in the round of 16; Blake might get inspired for a set but that would be his limit, and Robredo would be hard pressed to push Federer at all.

In the quarterfinals, Federer is slated to meet another man he has owned throughout his career: Nikolay Davydenko. Davydenko does not think for an instant that he can beat Federer. Federer would thus cruise into the penultimate round of the tournament with little or no fuss at all. In the semifinals, he would conceivably meet the winner of the Andy Roddick-Novak Djokovic quarterfinal. More likely than not, Roddick will beat Djokovic. He has defeated the Serbian three times in a row, including a recent triumph in Montreal.

But let’s look at both scenarios. If Federer plays Roddick, he will take a 19-2 career record with him into that appointment, including their most recent showdown in the Wimbledon final. That record obscures the fact that Roddick has played Federer much tougher recently than was often the case in the past. The 27-year-old American was highly unlucky to lose the title match at Wimbledon after winning the first set and leading 6-2 in the second set tie-break. He battled gamely to the end before losing 16-14 in the fifth set. Earlier in the year, Roddick took sets off Federer in Miami and Madrid, and probably should have stopped Federer in the former skirmish.

If Roddick met Federer in the semifinals, the New York crowd would give him an unprecedented level of support. Roddick would undoubtedly be buoyed by having an audience so fervently on his side, and he is playing the finest tennis of his career. The 2003 US Open champion would give himself a chance to win against Federer. As is almost always the case when these two competitors clash, it would come down to at least two critical tie-breaks. Roddick will be tough to break, and Federer will protect his serve every bit or maybe even more sedulously.

In the end, Federer would win a blockbuster match from his old rival, coming away with a 6-7 (8), 7-6 (5), 4-6, 7-6 (2), 6-4 victory. As was essentially the case at Wimbledon, Roddick would play the match of his life, but still lose. And what if Federer plays Djokovic? That one would be more straightforward. Djokovic compromised far too much on his first serve when he lost 6-1, 7-5 to Federer in Cincinnati. He seemed afraid to allow Federer too many cracks at second serves, and proceeded to add too much spin to his first delivery. Federer feasted on that recipe, and he will do the same if they play in New York. Federer will beat Djokovic 6-4, 6-4, 3-6, 6-3.

On the other half of the draw, No. 2 seed Andy Murray has his work cut out for him. He could have a difficult time with Marin Cilic in the round of 16, but would win that contest in four sets. The real trouble starts in the quarterfinals. None of the top four seeds wanted any part of Juan Martin Del Potro in that round, but it is Murray who is stuck with the demanding assignment. Murray stopped Del Potro in a four set quarterfinal at the Open a year ago, but Del Potro has improved by leaps and bounds since then. Earlier this year, he beat Murray for the first time on clay in Madrid, and recently he lost narrowly to the British No. 1 in the final of Montreal. Murray barely got through that bruising battle, winning in the end largely on fitness.

My guess is that this quarterfinal would be played under the lights, which would probably benefit Del Potro. It would be a test of Murray’s subtle changes of pace and strategic acumen against Del Potro’s brute force. Del Potro has solidified his ground game impressively. His two-handed backhand was always a magnificent stroke while his forehand was fragile at times. Now the forehand is a much better stroke, and Del Potro has vastly improved his first and second serves. Murray will need to keep probing to find the slightest of weaknesses, because Del Potro will not give much away. This match has five sets written all over it. In the end, Murray will win by the skin of his teeth, as his mental toughness leads him to a 4-6, 7-5,7-6 (5), 3-6, 7-5 victory.

In the semifinals, I look for a Murray-Rafael Nadal confrontation. In the same round a year ago, Murray beat Nadal for the first time, ending a five match career losing streak against his opponent. This year, they have split two head to head matches. Nadal is appearing in only his third tournament since returning from a long absence with knee problems. Nadal will come into this semifinal after beating some big names along the way. In the opening round, he will beat Richard Gasquet, the brilliant shot maker from France who owns one of the game’s most remarkable one-handed backhands.

Nadal will take that match in straight sets, but he might have a rough battle on his hands in the round of 16 when he could play David Ferrer. Ferrer ousted an ailing Nadal in the round of 16 two years ago at the Open, and could push him hard again. But Nadal will turn the tables and win this time in four hard sets. In the quarterfinals, Nadal figures to face No. 7 seed Jo Wilfried Tsonga, the 2008 Australian Open finalist. Tsonga crushed Nadal in straight sets to make it to that final, but this time Nadal will pick him apart in four entertaining sets.

So Nadal will be in good form heading into his semifinal with Murray. But will that be good enough? Murray has the benefit of much more match play across the heart of 2009. Nadal still needs a few more tournaments to reach the upper level of his game. He needs a shade more confidence. These two great players will battle furiously through a long match, but Murray will have the slight edge in the end. He will prevail 7-6 (6), 4-6, 7-6 (5), 7-6 (7) in a four hour skirmish of the highest order.

And so it will be Murray against Federer for the second year in a row in the Open final. Murray will be more prepared this time, less in awe of his surroundings, better able to handle the experience of being in a major final. But Federer did himself a world of good when he beat Murray in Cincinnati. He will walk onto the court for this final fully believing he will win; Murray will be optimistic but not entirely convinced he can get the job done.

And yet, Murray will throw everything he has at Federer. He will return much better than he did in Cincinnati. He will serve clusters of aces and move his second serve around more skillfully than was the case the last time he played Federer. That will make it awkward for Federer to attack those second serve returns, and Murray will thus hold serve more easily. But Federer will keep rescuing himself on big break points with magnificent serving. He will frustrate his adversary with his bold and nerveless play under pressure. Murray will retaliate by catching Federer off guard with his outstanding backhand down the line, and he will more than hold his own from the back of the court.

It will be a superb final from both sides of the court, but Federer will win his 16th major in a hard fought encounter: 7-5, 4-6, 7-5, 7-6 (8). In the fourth set tie-break, Federer will save three set points to avert a fifth set.

As for the women, the view here is that Dinara Safina--- the top seed--- will find herself in an arduous quarterfinal against 2008 finalist Jelena Jankovic, the No. 5 seed. Safina did not play particularly good tennis over the summer after reaching the final of the French Open and the semifinals of Wimbledon. Jankovic has not had a good year until she won Cincinnati, but now her confidence is back. In that event, she beat Safina in the final. Jankovic will repeat that victory at the Open and move into the semifinals. She will meet Elena Dementieva in a repeat of the 2008 semifinals.

Dementieva will face a stern third round confrontation with Maria Sharapova, the 2006 Open victor. Dementieva just beat Sharapova on a windswept afternoon in the final of Toronto. That was a hard fought, straight set showdown. This time, the two Russians will fight furiously through three sets, across a long afternoon, through several shifts in momentum. Dementieva will survive, coming through 5-7, 6-3, 7-5 in a stirring battle. Sharapova will serve for the match at 5-3 in the third, but Dementieva will hang on and get out of that bind.

Dementieva will beat Svetlana Kuznetsova in the quarterfinals, reversing the result of the 2004 US Open championship match. She will have been through a lot by the time she meets Jankovic, but Dementieva will be better for it. When Jankovic beat Dementieva in the semifinals of Cincinnati, she needed to save four match points. This time around, Dementieva will gain the upper hand early, and she will force the issue with her flatter, more stinging ground strokes. Dementieva will defeat Jankovic 7-5, 7-6 (4) and reach the final with that victory.

On the opposite half of the draw, No. 2 seed Serena Williams will take on No. 28 Sybille Bammer in the third round. Bammer recently ousted a subdued and listless Serena in Cincinnati, but Serena will be out for revenge against the left-hander, and she will get it with a tough two set victory, toppling her rival for the first time in three career meetings. Serena will play No. 10 seed Flavia Penetta in the quarters. Penetta has enjoyed her best year as a professional, and recently beat Venus Williams. But Serena will overpower Penetta 7-5, 6-4 in a compelling collision. I look for 2000-2001 champion Venus Williams---- the No. 3 seed--- to play No. 8 Victoria Azarenka in a scintillating quarterfinal.

Venus will win the first set, lose the second, and then force a third set tie-break. That will be a spectacular sequence, but Azarenka--- the loudest current grunter in the women’s game--- will narrowly escape with a 4-6, 6-4, 7-6 (7) victory, saving a match point when Venus drives a forehand long to end a dramatic exchange from the baseline.

In the semifinals, Serena will have a similarly close and high quality contest with Azarenka. Serena will be peaking by now, getting her forehand under control, opening up the court with her two-handed backhand, exploiting her first serve over and over again. Serena Williams will defeat Azarenka 7-5, 7-6(4) to move into the final.

When Serena recently played Dementieva in Toronto, she lost a tight first set in a tie-break, and then essentially went away. She seemed resigned to defeat. Dementieva took full advantage of it. But this situation reminds me a lot of the start of the 2009 season. Dementieva upended Serena in Sydney but when they met again, Williams beat Dementieva in the semifinals of the Australian Open. In the final of the U.S. Open, Williams and Dementieva will have a match reminiscent of their semifinal at Wimbledon, when Williams rallied from match point down to win 6-7, 7-5, 8-6 in the match of the year thus far in the women’s game.

This time around, Williams will win by scores of 7-5, 6-7 (3), 7-6 (2) as the two players push each other to their outer limits. As is so often the case, Serena will achieve the victory as much with her willpower as her shot making. She will win her 12th major title. Dementieva will lose gallantly. The world of women’s tennis will celebrate a classic final in the last major championship of 2009.

FRENCH OPEN PREVIEW

Every time we move toward another Grand Slam championship, before the first ball is struck, before the tournament has taken shape and the players have rounded into form, before all of the drama unfolds, the men’s and women’s singles draws are eagerly anticipated by all of us. At the least, the draws provide us with a sense of the many possibilities for the fortnight ahead. They give us a sense of what should or might occur, of which players have the toughest paths to the latter stages of the event, of what might be the most intriguing matchups.

This time around at Roland Garros, Rafael Nadal is the overwhelming favorite to rule on the red clay. He has never lost a match at the French Open, and no one has ever taken him to five sets at the world’s premier clay court event. Across his career in best of five set matches on clay, he has an astounding 45-0 record, and in that span has only twice been extended to five sets (by Guillermo Coria in the 2005 Italian Open final and by Roger Federer at the same event a year later). This season on clay, Nadal swept through Monte Carlo, Barcelona and Rome at the cost of only one set, winning those titles convincingly. Last weekend, he lost to Federer in the final of Madrid, suffering only his second loss in eleven career head to head clashes against the Swiss. But Nadal had come off a debilitating four hour, three minute duel with Novak Djokovic, saving three match points in that contest.

I believe that loss (which took place in high altitude in much faster conditions than Roland Garros) will only make Nadal more intense and motivated to win his fifth straight title at the French Open. A year ago, he did not concede a set in seven nearly impeccable matches, finishing his run with emphatic triumphs over Djokovic and Federer. That feat will be difficult but not impossible for Nadal to replicate. He might lose a few sets this year, but how can anyone topple him in a best of five set match on this surface? His ferocity as a competitor, his nearly inexhaustible supply of energy, and the immense consistency of his game will carry him to a seventh Grand Slam championship crown.

Let’s examine the draw. Nadal opens against a qualifier and should move through to the third round with ease. In that round, he might play Ivo Karlovic or former world No. 1 Lleyton Hewitt. They meet in a compelling first round match. If it is Karlovic who earns the right to play Nadal, he will extend a few sets with his huge first serve. But the 6’10” Croatian--- who took Nadal into a final set tie-break on the grass at Queen’s Club last June--- would not be able to impose himself on the clay and would bow in straight sets. Hewitt could make Nadal work hard for a while, but the 28-year-old Australian will not be able to contain Nadal from the back of the court for long. Nadal would advance in straight sets.

Thereafter, the task gets more challenging for the world No. 1. He figures to meet No. 14 seed David Ferrer in the round of 16. Ferrer was ranked as high as No. 4 in the world early in 2008, and he is one of the fastest players in the sport. He has been runner-up to Nadal the last two years in Barcelona, and is capable of making this an absorbing contest. Ferrer has a chance to take a set, but will do no more than that because Nadal will force his countryman to go for too much and Ferrer will inevitably start missing off both sides as he attempts low percentage shots.

On Nadal will go to the quarterfinals, where another Spaniard will almost surely be waiting for him. That player is No. 8 seed Fernando Verdasco, the man who fought so valiantly against Nadal in the semifinals of the Australian Open this year. Verdasco battled for five hours and 14 minutes in that suspenseful encounter at Melbourne before falling gallantly in five sets on the hard courts. They have met twice during this clay court season and Verdasco, despite some impressive passages, did not take a set from Nadal. In Madrid, with Nadal so uneasy in the high altitude, Verdasco led 4-0 in the second set but won only one more game in a 6-4, 7-5 defeat.

Verdasco will almost certainly play a much closer match than he had against Nadal a year ago at Roland Garros. On that occasion, Nadal advanced 6-1, 6-0, 6-2. But Verdasco has made significant strides since then. He is fitter, more solid and thoughtful from the baseline, more willing to win with grit instead of going so frequently for explosive winners. He will test Nadal but, in the end, Nadal will be too cagey and resilient. Nadal will win in three tight sets. The guess here is a 7-5, 6-4, 6-4 victory for Nadal.

In the semifinals, Nadal should be confronting world No. 3 Andy Murray. Murray has not yet been at his best on the European clay after an excellent start to the year on hard courts. He lost to Nadal in the semifinals of Madrid in straight sets, then fell surprisingly to Juan Monaco after winning a 6-1 first set in Rome, and was beaten for the first time by Juan Martin Del Potro in the quarterfinals of Madrid. I still get the feeling that Murray is improving on the clay and will play his best at Roland Garros.

Murray opens against the experienced Juan Ignacio Chela, the 29-year-old from Argentina. Murray will get through that one in straight sets. He may have a tough third round assignment against either Janko Tipsarevic or the No. 28 seed Feliciano Lopez. Either way, I like Murray’s chances for a straight set victory. In the round of 16, he should take on either No. 18 seed Radek Stepanek or No. 13 Marin Cilic, but by then he should be gaining confidence and playing well.

The seedings indicate that Murray would play No. 7 seed Gilles Simon of France in the quarters, but I have my doubts that Simon will get that far. He has not played with much authority for most of this year, and I believe he is more comfortable and a better player on hard courts. I look for No. 12 seed Fernando Gonzalez to come through that section of the draw and thus garner an appointment with Murray in the last eight. Gonzalez has one of the game’s most daunting forehands and he enjoys competing on clay, but Murray will eventually pick him apart in four sets.

That would put Murray up against Nadal in an enticing semifinal. Murray had never beaten Nadal in five previous meetings before upending the Spaniard in the semifinals of the 2008 U.S. Open on hard courts. He posted another win in their next meeting earlier this year in Rotterdam, although Nadal was playing hurt through much of that match. In their most recent showdown, Nadal was outmaneuvering Murray skillfully from the baseline in building a 6-2, 5-2 lead in Monte Carlo, but Murray fought back impressively to take that second set into a tie-break.

In the latter stages of that contest, Murray raised his game decidedly while Nadal became too cautious. Murray surely learned that he needed to be bolder in the rallies and take some calculated risks. He will undoubtedly approach this meeting determined to unsettle Nadal by being as aggressive as possible. But Nadal’s consistency will be too much for the British No. 1. In the end, Nadal will exploit his inside-out forehand to break down Murray’s forehand, and his heavy topspin forehand crosscourt will hurt Murray as well. Murray will be made to play too many high, awkward balls off his two-handed backhand. Nadal will win a hard fought battle 6-4, 7-6, 7-5.

That win would take Nadal into the final. The guess here is that the No. 2 seed Roger Federer and No. 4 Novak Djokovic will make it through to the penultimate round and on that occasion will give us perhaps the match of the tournament. Federer faces 30-year-old Alberto Martin in the first round. That is an ideal opening match for the Swiss, who will hit just enough balls but will not ever be unduly worried. Federer will win easily in straight sets. He could take on No. 32 seed Paul-Henri Mathieu in the third round but not even a vociferous French crowd will prevent Federer from achieving another routine victory.

In the round of 16, perhaps No. 15 seed James Blake, No. 19 seed Tomas Berdych or the intriguing Frenchman Jeremy Chardy will play Federer. Blake just lost badly to Federer in Madrid and was thoroughly outclassed. Berdych is more comfortable on clay than Blake but the No. 19 seed---- who took the first two sets from Federer this year at the Australian Open before fading in five--- is overmatched against the No. 2 seed on clay.

Andy Roddick is seeded sixth, and would theoretically meet Federer in the quarters. Roddick took a break from the clay court circuit before returning in Madrid. On the faster clay there, he took a set off Federer in the quarters. He will meet French wildcard Romain Jouan in the first round, could play the capable Spaniard Oscar Hernandez in the second round, and should he survive he would conceivably play the German Rainer Schuettler (the No. 27 seed) in the round of 32.

No. 11 seed Gael Monfils --- a semifinalist in 2008--- is expected to meet Jurgen Melzer in the third round, with the winner to play Roddick in the round of 16. I can’t see Roddick advancing to the quarterfinals, but it is awfully difficult to figure out who will face Federer in that round. There is an outside chance it could be Roddick, it might be Schuettler. Perhaps Monfils--- despite being short of match play after an injury--- will get on a good roll.

In the end, it doesn’t matter much. Federer will move through that section of the draw confidently, most likely without the loss of a set. In the penultimate round, it will be Djokovic standing across the net from the Swiss. Djokovic will need to be sharp from the outset. He plays 32-year-old Nicolas Lapentti of Ecuador in the first round. Lapentti was once a world top ten player, and remains formidable these days. But Djokovic will settle in by the middle of the second set and win in four sets.

In the third round, Djokovic should meet either Philipp Kohlschreiber, 2003 Roland Garros victor Juan Carlos Ferrero, or the revitalized Ivan Ljubicic. In any case, Djokovic will navigate his way safely through one of those players. In the round of 16, he will beat Tommy Robredo and then it should be time for Djokovic to play No. 5 seed Juan Martin Del Potro. Djokovic will be too quick, cunning and commanding for the big man from Argentina and he will win in straight sets.

Djokovic versus Federer: what more could we ask for? In 2008 and 2009, Djokovic went all the way to the semifinals before losing to Nadal both times. He has recently beaten Federer two times in a row for the first time in his career, upending his adversary in Miami on hard courts and in Rome on clay. Both times, Djokovic struck back from a set down to defeat Federer. Federer fell apart in Miami and lost seven straight games at one stage as his forehand all but disappeared. In Rome, Federer was up a set and a break and then led 3-1 in the final set. He never won another game.

In that match, Djokovic played remarkably well to pull out the triumph. It was a higher caliber contest and he competed impressively. Federer, however, picked up a good dose of confidence by winning Madrid after having not won a tournament since last autumn. He will carry that with him into Roland Garros. But Djokovic has had a terrific clay court season. He won a tournament in Serbia, made it to the finals of Monte Carlo and Rome before losing excellent matches to Nadal, and then lost honorably to Nadal in the Madrid semifinals despite reaching match point three times.

He is playing some of the most consistent tennis of his career. And so both men will go into this battle fully believing in themselves and their chances. It will come down in the end to a few crucial points. Federer may have the slight edge on serve and will win more free points with his delivery, but Djokovic might be slightly superior from the baseline, as was the case in Rome. Djokovic will be probing constantly, looking to use his crosscourt backhand to puncture holes in Federer’s backhand, trying to create openings to make Federer play difficult running forehands.

Federer will mix it up as only he can, using the backhand drop shot and the short backhand slice to draw Djokovic forward. There will be little to choose between two men absolutely determined to win a match of this consequence. Federer--- who has lost only to Nadal the last four years at Roland Garros-- will win a close first set and then Djokovic will strike back to control the next two sets. Federer will answer by claiming the fourth set in a tie-break, and then they will play on majestically through a gripping fifth set. Djokovic will wipe away some critical break points against him, and then at 5-5 he will break his opponent. It won’t be easy but Djokovic will serve out the match and gain the victory as a classic clash ends in style.

Djokovic will take heart from his stirring performances against Nadal en route to Roland Garros. He was the only player to take a set off Nadal before Madrid, and then it took some startling shot making from Nadal to oust Djokovic in Spain. On two of the three match points he saved, Nadal produced gutsy forehand winners; on the third, a deep, penetrating serve to Djokovic’s backhand coaxed the Serbian into hitting a two-hander long.

This will be a compelling final. Nadal will be aggressive and tenacious from the start and will win the first set, but a resolute Djokovic will come back strong to take the second. The third will be tight. Djokovic will realize it is a must win set, and know that he can’t afford to go down two sets to one. Nadal will gradually gain the upper hand by pounding away at Djokovic’s backhand until he can get just enough openings for inside-out forehands. Nadal will get too many tough returns back into play. He will win the third set 6-4, and drive his way relentlessly to a 6-4, 3-6, 6-4, 6-3 victory. No one will say he hasn’t earned it.

I believe that Dinara Safina will live up to her status as the top seed and come away with her first major title. Safina was a finalist at Roland Garros a year ago, losing to a top of the line Ana Ivanovic. Safina then made it to the semifinals of the U.S. Open, and was runner-up at the Australian Open to Serena Williams. That is a string of consistency not to be overlooked.

Safina should come through the early rounds despite a few tough tests, and then will meet No. 15 seed Jie Zheng in the round of 16. Zheng is a find counter-attacker, agile and cagey, determined and purposeful. She will push Safina into a hard fought, three set contest, but Safina will pull away 6-2 in the final set. In the last eight, Safina should play either the No. 8 seed Ivanovic, or the No. 9 seed Victoria Azarenka. Safina will be primed to play either woman. She would like nothing more than to turn the tables on Ivanovic, and would do so in three sets. If she meets the rapidly improving Azarenka, Safina would prevail in two close sets with her slightly greater weight of shot.

Venus Williams--- the No. 3 seed--- has had a disappointing history at Roland Garros. She did reach the final in 2002, and in her 12 previous appearances at the French Open she has made it to four other quarterfinals, the most recent in 2006. But she has too often lost early in Paris. Venus could have an interesting first round clash with her countrywoman Bethanie Mattek-Sands. A second round meeting with either Lucie Safarova would not be easy. And in the third round, Venus would surely have some serious problems overcoming Agnes Szavay, the No. 29 seed from Hungary.

If she manages to prevail in her first three matches, Venus might play No. 16 seed Amelie Mauresmo, who has played some surprisingly good tennis in 2009. Mauresmo is a more relaxed competitor these days than she was in the heart of her career, when she was under so much pressure to win majors. She now has two Grand Slam championships in her collection, and is playing more for sheer enjoyment than ever before. Williams and Mauresmo would produce a spirited three set clash which could go either way. I go with Mauresmo.

No. 6 seed Vera Zvonareva played much better tennis at the end of 2008 and earlier this year than she is at the moment. She could play No. 25 seed Li Na in the third round, and might take on No. 11 Nadia Petrova in the round of 16. But I see Zvonareva earning a quarterfinal assignment with Mauresmo. Zvonareva will win that match with her speed and ground stroke consistency overcoming Mauresmo’s shot making sparkle.

Safina will be confident by the time she plays Zvonareva in the semifinals. Her power and control off the two-handed backhand will be too much for Zvonareva, and Safina will be back in the final with a straight set win.

In the bottom half of the draw, Serena Williams--- the No. 2 seed--- will be looking to rediscover her clay court game after being injured recently. Serena is on a great run at the majors. Since losing early at Roland Garros a year ago, she reached the final of Wimbledon and won the U.S. and Australian Opens. This is a big occasion player of the highest order.

But the fact remains that she has not played well over the years at Roland Garros. She won the tournament in 2002 over her sister Venus when she was at the absolute peak of her powers. In her next three appearances, she was once a semifinalist and twice reached the quarters. But then she fell in the third round to Katarina Srebotnik a year ago. Her preparation for this tournament has not been what she would have wanted.

Serena might have to play Shuai Peng of China (the No. 31 seed) in the third round and that will not be easy. She could well lose that match. If she wins, she would probably face No. 14 seed Flavia Pennetta. And if Serena somehow manages to keep on course, her quarterfinal opponent figures to be Svetlana Kuznetsova. I believe Kuznetsova, who is having a very good year, will take out Serena or anyone else and reach the semifinals. In the top section of that bottom half of the draw, the two players to watch most closely are No. 5 seed Jelena Jankovic and No. 4 Elena Dementieva.

Jankovic finished 2008 at the No. 1 ranked player in the world. She made it to her first major final at the 2008 U.S. Open. She was playing top of the line tennis. This year she has not been close to her best. She has suffered one surprising loss after another. And yet, if she can find her form, she is an excellent clay court player. In 2007 and 2008, she was a semifinalist at Roland Garros. Last year, she was serving at 4-3 in the final set against Ivanovic, on the verge of making the final. Had she won that match, she might have gone on to claim the title.

Jankovic faces a potentially stern test in the round of 16 against either Alize Cornet of France or the rapidly improving Caroline Wozniacki, the recent runner-up against Safina in Madrid. I believe Wozniacki will beat Cornet and then will spring the upset and beat Jankovic in three sets. In a hard fought quarterfinal, Wozniacki will topple Dementieva 7-5 in the final set.

So the surprising semifinal pairing will be Kuznetsova versus Wozniacki. Kuznetsova has a ton of big match experience on her side. She won the 2004 U.S. Open. She was runner-up to Justine Henin at Roland Garros in 2006. She made it to the U.S. Open final in 2007 and was a semifinalist at Roland Garros a year ago. Wozniacki will push Kuznetsova long and hard though three sets, across a number of momentum shifts. But Kuznetsova will be a three set winner in the end.

And so it will be Safina and Kuznetsova playing for the title. Both players will be filled with apprehension at the outset, but Kuznetsova will be marginally more stable from the baseline and will attack at opportune moments. She will win that set 7-5, but Safina will not be swayed. She will start taking control of the rallies and will cut down substantially on her unforced errors. Safina will come on strong and take the match 5-7, 6-4, 6-2 for her long awaited first Grand Slam championship.

Nadal and Safina will be the champions. That is the view from here.

AUSTRALIAN OPEN AFTERTHOUGHTS

In the weeks leading up to the 2009 Australian Open, most close followers of the game fully expected a magnificent opening to the season. Everything pointed to a riveting tournament for the men. Novak Djokovic was back to defend his crown. Roger Federer was there to restore his authority and chase a record tying 14th Grand Slam Championship. Andy Murray seemed poised to collect his first major after a brilliant second half of 2008 and an impressive start in 2009. And last, but not least, world No. 1 Rafael Nadal was utterly determined to prevail for the first time at a Grand Slam event on hard courts. With so many exhilarating possibilities, how could we go wrong?
Quite clearly, this was one of those rare moments when a big tournament was every bit as good as we could have anticipated, and possibly better. In the end, of course, it was Nadal more than anyone else who made the Australian Open sparkle. It was Nadal who competed for a total of nine hours and 37 minutes in ten soul searching sets in the semifinals and final to garner his sixth major championship so deservedly. It was Nadal who demonstrated once more that no one can match his mental toughness, his steely resolve under pressure, his durability and unflappability through long skirmishes against the fiercest of adversaries.
Defeating Fernando Verdasco and Roger Federer in back to back five set contests at the end of the fortnight was an astounding feat that even the indefatigable Nadal might not be able to replicate. His marathon five hours, 14 minute confrontation with the vastly improved Verdasco was a gripping spectacle. Verdasco had made considerable progress across 2008, finishing the season at No. 16 in the world after peaking earlier in the year at No. 11. He had trained with vigor in the off season under the guidance of the renowned Gil Reyes, Andre Agassi’s fitness guru. He had come into this major with a sense of self he had never known before.
Before Verdasco arrived for his appointment in the penultimate round with Nadal, he had raced through the first three rounds at the cost of a mere 12 games in nine sets, setting an Open Era record in the process. In the round of 16, he won a somewhat bizarre battle with Murray, rallying admirably for a 2-6, 6-1, 1-6, 6-3, 6-4 triumph over the No. 4 seed. I thought Murray would have a distinct advantage by having the luxury of serving first in the final set, but Verdasco competed honorably in that remarkable chapter.
Serving at 2-3, Verdasco was in a serious bind. Twice in that critical game, the 25-year-old Spanish lefty fought off break points, one with a bold ace down the T, another with a succession of penetrating ground strokes that left Murray unable to recover. Verdasco held on for 3-3, broke Murray in the following game, and never looked back. He then upended 2008 Australian Open finalist Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in four hard fought sets to earn his duel of southpaws with Nadal.
Verdasco had only once taken a set off Nadal in six previous meetings, but the world No. 1 realized he was taking on a player who had moved to an entirely new and higher level. That was apparent from the outset of this crackling encounter. Nadal had two break points with Verdasco serving at 5-5 in the opening set, but was unable to convert. In the first set tie-break, Nadal was ahead 3-1 but his unwavering opponent collected six of the next eight points to seal the set. Nadal struck back ferociously to take the second and was twice up a break in the third, building leads of 2-0 and 4-2 as Verdasco seemed to be wilting under the assault.
And yet, the underdog found reserves of energy and bursts of inspiration. He battled back to force a tie-break, but in that sequence his ball control deserted him and Nadal confidently finished off that set with a blazing forehand winner and an ace. At two sets to one, his chances to run out the match seemed excellent. Early in the fourth set, Verdasco looked as if his body might finally betray him, but his serve did not. Both players held to set up another tie-break, and this time the inspired Verdasco could do almost no wrong, blasting winner after glorious winner off his big forehand, sweeping into a fifth set with his bold play under pressure.
All across the fifth set, Nadal was creating opportunities for himself, but Verdasco kept fending him off with unbridled yet controlled aggression. Verdasco saved two set points at 0-1 in that fifth set, wiped away another at 2-3, and cast aside two more at 3-4. Nadal was uncommonly tight on the big points, too cautious numerous times, burdened by wanting so badly to win a match of this consequence against a player he was expected to beat. At 4-4, Nadal fell behind 0-30 and was six points from a bruising defeat. Verdasco pulled a forehand wide on the next point, missed a routine forehand return at 15-30, and that was all the leeway Nadal needed.
Nadal held on gamely for 5-4 with a high forehand volley winner and a clean winner off the forehand. In the tenth game, Verdasco double faulted to fall behind 0-40, triple match point. He rallied to 30-40, but then double faulted again. Nadal--- despite being far below his best--- had found a way to survive a spirited performance from a worthy rival. That set up his final round appointment with Federer, who had wandered into dangerous territory himself in a fourth round collision with Tomas Berdych, dropping the first two sets of that clash before recouping for a five set triumph.
Thereafter, Federer settled into a comfort zone, dismantling Juan Martin Del Potro 6-3, 6-0, 6-0 in the quarters, and taking apart an overzealous Andy Roddick 6-2, 7-5, 7-5 in the semifinals. Federer did not lose his serve in either match. Roddick had worn down Djokovic on a stifling day in the heat after losing the first set in a tie-break, as Djokovic surrendered when he was down a break in the fourth. But Roddick--- the man who held serve more successfully than anyone else in the men’s game across 2008--- let himself down badly by failing to reach a tie-break in the second and third sets. In the crunch, his serve was found wanting.
So Nadal and Federer squared off for the 19th time in their illustrious rivalry. It was a match of wildly fluctuating fortunes, featuring many more service breaks than is customary in this series between the Swiss maestro and the Spanish gladiator. Nadal broke Federer no fewer than 7 times in five sets, but Federer broke the Spaniard six times. The number of breaks made for a particularly compelling encounter, and that pattern of unpredictability was apparent from the outset.
In the opening set, Nadal broke his primary rival in the opening game, lost his delivery twice to trail 4-2, and then struck back boldly to capture five of six games to seal the set by breaking two more times. In the second set, Nadal broke for 3-2 and seemed in command, but an unwavering Federer secured four games in a row to reach one set all.
The third set through the early stages of the fourth was when both men played their highest quality tennis of the match. Neither player broke serve in the third, but Nadal faced some trying moments late in the set. At 4-4, he was down 0-40 but burst out of that corner with some stupendous shot making and fine strategic serving. At 5-5, he was behind 15-40 and faced the music again. Now it was Federer’s turn to escape, and he did just that by saving a set point at 5-6 with an excellent first serve down the T that Nadal could not keep in play. In the ensuing tie-break, the two competitors were locked at 3-3 when Federer misfired flagrantly on an inside-out forehand off Nadal’s return down the middle.
That mini-break propelled Nadal through the rest of the tie-break. He nailed a forehand crosscourt winner for 5-3, lunged to his right for an excellent backhand volley winner into an open court for 6-3, and then ran out the sequence when Federer double faulted. Nadal was back in command at two sets to one.
In the early stages of the fourth set, the tennis was even more sublime. Nadal made it back from 2-0 to 2-2 and then had five break points in a pivotal fifth game. Had he broken there, he might well have gone on to record a four set victory, but Federer had other notions. He held on bravely with a superb mixture of touch and aggression. That hold--- so crucial to the Swiss player’s fortunes--- hurt Nadal severely. Federer glided to 5-2 and took the set comfortably 6-3. On to a fifth set they went, with the momentum seemingly on Federer’s side.
But Nadal realized what an advantage he had by serving first in the fifth set. He buckled down immediately. Remarkably, despite his exhausting semifinal with Verdasco, despite four more debilitating sets with Federer, despite everything, Nadal regrouped once more and his staying power was beyond dispute. The 22-year-old summoned all of his resources and his serve was never better than when he needed it most in the last set. He never gave Federer any room for encouragement, winning 16 of 19 points on serve in that fifth set, holding twice at love, once at 15, and once at 30.
Meanwhile, Nadal made only 3 unforced errors in a set lasting 43 points. Conversely, Federer lost his range completely, making 14 unprovoked mistakes. Nadal cleverly exposed Federer’s weakness on the high backhand with his heavy topspin forehand crosscourt. In turn, Federer lost confidence in his forehand and his footwork was not up to par. My view is that Federer was worn down by all the running he did across the first four sets.
The truth is that Nadal worked Federer inordinately hard, making him chase down an awful lot of wide balls to the forehand, then forcing the Swiss to scamper back to cover the wide backhand. The combination of Nadal’s penetrating inside-out forehand and his flat two-hander crosscourt did a considerable amount of damage. Federer looked spent in the fifth set and Nadal exploited the situation to the hilt, coming away with a 7-5, 3-6, 7-6 (3), 3-6, 6-2 triumph.
Nadal has now toppled Federer six times in eight meetings at the majors altogether. Strictly in the finals at Grand Slam events, Nadal has been victorious five of seven times. To be sure, he has beaten Federer three times in the finals of Roland Garros on the red clay, and once more in the semifinals of that event. But the fact remains that Nadal has completed a three surface sweep of Federer at the major events over the last year, ruling on the clay in Paris, the grass at Wimbledon, and the hard courts of Australia. Nadal holds a 13-6 career lead over Federer in their overall series. Considering that so many of their duels have been on the biggest occasions, Nadal’s head to head superiority is no small thing.
As I look at the rest of 2009 and envision the three upcoming majors, it is hard to image Nadal not collecting a fifth consecutive French Open crown. I believe Nadal, Federer and Murray all have a serious chance to win Wimbledon, and the same trio--- plus possibly Djokovic--- will be in strong contention at the U.S. Open. I remain almost certain that Murray will succeed in either London or New York. Federer displayed much grit and fortitude in bouncing back emphatically after a distressing year to capture his fifth straight U.S. Open. He salvaged his season with that triumph.
It could well be even more arduous for Federer to win a major in 2009. Murray has beaten him five of the last six times they had met. Nadal has his number. The likes of Tsonga, Verdasco and a few others will be somewhere in the mix. Nadal has never had this kind of start to a year. He has a huge head start, and will be all the more confident when he heads into the clay court season. Murray is not discouraged after Melbourne, but Federer might well be.
I am looking forward to the rest of 2009 because the men’s game has seldom been more compelling.

2009 AUSTRALIAN OPEN PREVIEW

Now that the draw has just been released, I am ready to make my annual Australian Open forecast. The chief point of curiosity with respect to the men’s draw was where Andy Murray would end up. Much to Roger Federer’s delight, Murray---- the No. 4 seed--- fell into Rafael Nadal’s section of the draw. Since Federer has lost his last three meetings with the fast rising British player, and has been beaten by Murray five of the last six times they have clashed, he must have been somewhat relieved to find out that he would not have to deal with Murray until a potential final round collision.

The good news does not end there for the three time Australian Open victor. Federer opens with a comfortable first round assignment against the Italian Andreas Seppi. He routinely handles Seppi, and this time should be no different. In the third round, Federer could conceivably face 2005 champion Marat Safin. Safin toppled Federer in an epic semifinal that year, coming through 9-7 in the fifth set after a spectacular confrontation. Safin is seeded No. 26 this year, and is always a dangerously unpredictable player. But even if he plays reasonably well, Federer is simply not going to lose to the Russian this time around.

In the round of 16, Federer might take on Swiss compatriot Stanislas Wawrinka, or perhaps No. 20 seed Tomas Berdych. Berdych could be burdensome for Federer for a couple of sets, but he lacks the match playing acumen or consistency to do more than take a set from the No. 2 seed. I fully expect the No. 8 seed Del Potro to confront Federer in the quarters. Del Potro might have to avenge a Davis Cup loss he suffered against the wily, left-handed Feliciano Lopez in the third round, but he should survive in four sets. In the round of 16, either Marin Cilic or David Ferrer could take on Del Potro.

The guess here is that Cilic will be the one Del Potro plays in that round, and that could be quite a skirmish. But I like Del Potro’s more consistent and explosive ground game and his superior match playing temperament. Del Potro would advance and meet Federer for a place in the semifinals. Federer could have his hands full from the back of the court. Del Potro will push him hard during the rallies, and send a barrage of balls to his opponent’s backhand side. But Federer’s serve will be the determining factor in the contest. He will come from behind and win in a fourth set tie-break.

The No. 7 seed Roddick opens against a qualifier, and might have to play the man who beat him at this tournament a year ago--- Philipp Kohlschreiber. I don’t see lightening striking twice. If Roddick plays the German this year in the third round, he wins in four sets. In the round of 16, Roddick figures to meet old rival David Nalbandian, the No. 10 seed. Nalbandian will have some difficult foes to overcome along the way, including a tricky first round duel with the Frenchman Marc Gicquel. But I believe Nalbandian will muddle through his section of the draw.

The Roddick-Nalbandian round of 16 clash would be a spirited encounter. Roddick will need to attack forcefully and persistently. From the baseline, Nalbandian is the markedly superior player. His two-handed backhand is a much better shot than Roddick’s, and he will contain the American and prevent him from penetrating too much off the forehand. In the end, Roddick will get the job done in five exhilarating sets because his great first serve and willingness to go forward will give him the slightest of edges.

That will set up an enticing quarterfinal for Roddick against the defending champion Novak Djokovic. Djokovic opens against a qualifier and could meet No. 28 seed Paul-Henri Mathieu in the third round. Djokovic just handled Mathieu easily in Sydney, and will beat him again if they meet in Melbourne. In the round of 16, the Serbian figures to play either Mardy Fish or Robin Soderling. Fish played a respectable final against Djokovic at Indian Wells last year, and his attacking game could bother his adversary for a while. But Djokovic is too solid from the baseline to lose a best of five set match to Fish. He would prevail in four sets, as he would against the big hitting yet entirely too erratic Soderling.

So, the way I see it, Djokovic and Roddick will test each other for the second straight time in a Grand Slam event. At the U.S. Open last September, Djokovic was obliterating Roddick for two sets before the American struck back boldly to nearly take the match into a fifth set in the quarters. Djokovic hung on to win in a fourth set tie-break. I envision a similarly hard fought match in Melbourne. Roddick will throw a big mixture at Djokovic from start to finish, taking chances off the forehand to end rallies early, attempting some daring two-handed, down the line backhands whenever possible.

Djokovic will answer with his customary depth, pace and precision off the ground and he will have the upper hand in the longer rallies. Moreover, he will counter-attack effectively when Roddick inevitably moves forward. And yet, it will be a gripping, pendulum-swinging battle. Djokovic will come through, but he will need the full five sets to complete the job. That will take him into a compelling showdown with Federer as they stage a rematch of their 2008 semifinal. Djokovic, brimming with confidence after a scintillating 2007 season, won that encounter in straight sets after Federer led 5-3,0-30 in the opening set.

It seemed highly likely that Djokovic would meet Federer over and over again in 2008, but that was not the case. Federer beat Djokovic in Monte Carlo when Djokovic quit at a set and a break down. Thereafter, they played only one more time, with Federer overcoming a subdued Djokovic in four tough sets in the semifinals of the U.S. Open. Djokovic—clearly inhibited after turning the fans against him with some foolish post-match comments after his win over Roddick--- was apprehensive from the start, and Federer played one of his better matches of 2008 to prevail in four sets.

In this contest, both men will like their chances. Federer will be determined to make it to the first Grand Slam tournament final of 2009, while Djokovic will have his heart set on defending his crown and defeating Federer again. The serving efficiency of both men will be critical. There will be at least one and probably two tie-breaks. There will be shifts in momentum. Federer will try to control the climate of the match with his inside-out forehand, but Djokovic will counter with the same tactic. Djokovic will try as much as possible to make this a duel between his two-handed backhand and Federer’s one-handed stroke off that side.

Ultimately, not much will separate these two remarkable players, but Federer will be more confident in the tightest corners. He will recoup from two sets to one down, win a tie-break in the fourth set, and get the win by taking the fifth set 6-4. Nadal should have little trouble until a potential round of 16 meeting with either Richard Gasquet or 2007 Australian Open finalist Fernando Gonzalez. Either way, Nadal will advance without being stretched to his limits, although Gasquet could give him a tougher test. I see Nadal beating Gasquet in four sets or Gonzalez in straight sets. Nadal thus will move on to the quarters. In that round, he might meet No. 6 seed Gilles Simon, or perhaps play No. 12 seed Gael Monfils. Those two Frenchman have both had success over Nadal. Monfils beat Nadal 6-4, 6-4 in Doha a few weeks ago, and Simon stopped Nadal last autumn indoors in Madrid in a magnificent battle that went to a final set tie-break.

If Nadal faces Monfils, he will get revenge in four hard sets, dropping only the second. Should he play Simon, Nadal will pull away after a tight first set and win in straight sets. So Nadal would then be in the penultimate round. Murray, meanwhile, would be on a collision course with the Spaniard. Murray confronts the soon-to-be 34-year-old Andrei Pavel in the first round. He could well face the capable left-hander Jurgen Melzer in the third round. At the U.S. Open last year, Melzer nearly upset Murray before bowing in five sets.

But Murray will be much better prepared if they meet again in Melbourne. He will get the victory in straight sets. In the round of 16, Murray could play either Radek Stepanek or Fernando Verdasco. Stepanek does not have the consistency to stay with Murray from the baseline, and he will be forced to take too many chances. The left-handed Verdasco is a player Murray can handle any time. His explosive style plays well into Murray’s hands. I see Murray defeating either Verdasco or Stepanek in straight sets.

In the quarters, Murray might have to take on 2008 finalist Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, but the No. 5 seed Tsonga recently hurt his back and it is hard to know how close to the top of his game he will be. Other potential quarterfinal opponents for Murray are James Blake or Igor Andreev. Either of those players---- particularly Blake--- could get hot for one set, but Murray has too much versatility for both men and he will advance to the semifinals and an eagerly awaited battle with Nadal.

Nadal had never lost to Murray until the U.S. Open, but Murray won there for the first time in six career head-to-head contests. Recently, he beat Nadal in the final of an exhibition event. Nadal, however, will be fully charged emotionally for a match of this consequence. He will work Murray hard from the baseline, but Murray will counter with well executed risk taking and some timely winners. His first serve will keep Nadal largely at bay, but then again Nadal’s wide swinging lefty slice will cause Murray numerous problems as well.

This is an awfully difficult match to predict. In the end, I believe it will go right down to the wire. Nadal will be down two sets to one, but then will capture the fourth set and go up a break at 4-2 in the fifth. But Murray will make his move and gain a thrilling victory 9-7 in the fifth and final set.

Fortunately for Murray, he will have at least one and possibly two days off after that exhausting piece of business. He will need it, because Federer will be in a quietly ferocious mood to make amends for his recent string of losses to Murray. He will need to call on all of his big match experience as he tries to tie Pete Sampras’s record of 14 Grand Slam titles. Federer will give it his absolute all, fighting back from a set and a break down and moving ahead two sets to one. But Murray will not be swayed. He will not lose his serve in the last two sets, and Federer will gradually lose his range off the forehand. Murray will win his first major title, stopping Federer in an excellent final 6-4, 5-7, 5-7, 6-4, 6-3.

As for the women, top seeded Jelena Jankovic will move through the early rounds not with ease but with enough confidence to prevail. She could play Ai Sugiyama in the third round, Sybille Bammer in the round of 16 and conceivably Vera Zvonareva (the No. 7 seed) in the quarters. Jankovic will be ready for those meetings and will topple Zvonareva in three rigorous sets to make it to the semifinal round. Waiting for her there will be a woman who has given her all kinds of problems over the last year. I am referring to No. 3 seed Dinara Safina. Safina could have a tough round of 16 collision with Alize Cornet, but the will survive in three sets after dropping the first.

I see Caroline Wozniacki of Denmark taking on Safina in the quarterfinals. No. 5 seed Ana Ivanovic has been so unsettled as of late that I can’t see her going too far. Wozniacki will beat Ivanovic in the fourth round in straight sets. But Safina will find a way to upend Wozniacki in a three set quarterfinal. Safina will fully expect to beat Jankovic in the semifinals, but the Serbian—coming off a final round appearance in her last Grand slam event at the U.S. Open--- will use her remarkable ground stroke variety and wonderful ball control to wear down Safina. Jankovic will win that one 4-6, 7-5, 6-2 and make it into another major final.

No. 2 seed Serena Williams will gradually get her bearings. She will play Francesca Schiavone in the third round, Victoria Azarenka in the round of 16 and a surprise opponent in the quarterfinals. I don’t believe No. 8 seed Svetlana Kuznetsova will make it to the last eight. Although Serena will not be at her best, she will still make it through to the semifinals. In that round, it will be Elena Dementieva standing across the net from her. Dementieva--- the No. 4 seed--- will have beaten No. 30 seed Aleksandra Wozniak of Canada in the third round and Patty Schnyder in the round of 16. On the quarters, the Russian will have quite a battle on her hands.

No. 6 seed Venus Williams--- having overcome rough opposition against Tamarine Tanasugarn in the third round in a three set match--- will then barely escape defeat against the Italian Flavia Penetta, the woman who beat her at the French Open last year. But Venus will get out of that clash 7-5 in the final set. Then she will face Dementieva, and this will be a bruising battle under the sun. Venus will win the first set and come close to a straight set victory, but Dementieva will strike back confidently and pull off a 4-6, 7-5, 6-3 quarterfinal victory.

And so it will be Dementieva against Serena Williams in the semifinals. Dementieva just beat Serena handily in the semifinals of Sydney, but this will be a much closer showdown. Serena will be looking to serve the Russian wide to the forehand in the deuce court, and will release some thunderous deliveries down the T in the advantage court. That first serve will keep Serena in the match and nearly win it for her, but in the end Dementieva will win because her ground game is much more dependable than Serena’s. That backcourt consistency will allow Dementieva to prevail 7-5, 3-6, 7-5 in the match of the tournament. Serena will squander a 5-3 lead in the third set.

That will set the stage for either Dementieva or Jankovic to win a first career Grand Slam crown. Dementieva will set the pace early on, using the weight of her shots to open up the court and force errors from Jankovic. Dementieva will serve for the first set, but Jankovic will respond ably under pressure. She will take that set in a tie-break and then gradually get control of the match. Jankovic will change pace and trajectories. She will roll her forehand deep and use her two-hander to create acute angles. In the battle of two-handers crosscourt, Jankovic will have the upper hand.

Jankovic will sense her big chance, and reach out and take it. She will beat Dementieva 7-6 (5), 6-4 and prove why she finished 2008 as the top ranked player in the world. She will be a worthy winner.

2008 YEAR IN REVIEW

In the world of tennis--- as in the larger arena of life--- seasons come and go. Some are more memorable than others. Many leave us sorely let down by the turn of events. Each and every year has an identity of its own. But 2008 will undoubtedly be remembered as one of the most captivating years ever in the sport. In the four Grand Slam events for the men and the women, seven different champions emerged at the majors. A “Changing of the Guard” took place in men’s tennis, and in the women’s game no one really stepped up to fill the sizeable void left by the retirement of Justine Henin in May. And yet, the Williams sisters each collected another “Big Four” singles crown, Maria Sharapova garnered her third career major, and Ana Ivanovic got on the board with her first triumph at a Grand Slam tournament.
Let’s return to the men’s 2008 campaign, which was riveting from beginning to end. It all commenced in Melbourne with Novak Djokovic securing his first Grand Slam title, upending two-time defending champion Roger Federer in the semifinals and then ousting the brilliant and charismatic Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in the final. I believed then that Djokovic could well be on his way to the penthouse of tennis. He only confirmed my feeling by capturing Indian Wells in March and the Italian Open in May. There was a growing feeling among the cognoscenti that the Serbian was moving to another level as a player, and he seemed comfortable with his rising status in the game.
And yet, from the middle of spring deep into the summer, the redoubtable Rafael Nadal was not to be denied. Nadal recorded his first tournament victory of 2008 in Monte Carlo on the red clay where he is virtually unstoppable. He went on to win Barcelona and Hamburg and then was immaculate at Roland Garros, capturing his fourth French Open in a row without the loss of a single set in the fortnight. In the final, he demolished a subdued and seemingly helpless Federer 6-1, 6-3, 6-0 as the Swiss suffered his most one-sided defeat ever at a major event.
At Wimbledon, Nadal and Federer played probably the greatest tennis match of all time. It was surely the best contest since the epic Bjorn Borg-John McEnroe 1980 final at the All England Club, when McEnroe saved no fewer than seven match points in a stirring fourth set comeback, only to lose a hard fought fifth by the tightest of margins to the implacable Swede. Borg won that one 1-6, 7-5, 6-3, 6-7 (16-18), 8-6. They were then the two best players in the world, and both players raised their reputations immeasurably with their shining performances that afternoon.
Nadal and Federer--- the two best players of 2008--- put on such a sublime display that their confrontation was observed by casual sports fans as well as tennis diehards, by those who had seldom watched tennis before to insiders who found themselves gasping at the improbability of it all. Let’s recollect what happened. Nadal took the first two sets 6-4, 6-4, but they were not easy. He had to save break points at 5-4 in both sets, but the left-handed Spaniard handled those demanding moments with customary discipline and focus.
In the third set, the players were forced off court by a rain delay with Nadal serving at 4-5. Federer had held on gamely from 0-40 at 3-3 to escape what would almost certainly have been a straight set loss. When the players returned, they moved inevitably into a tie-break, and Federer was magnificent in that sequence. He served exquisitely and thoroughly deserved to win that set. The fourth set went with serve all the way to another tie-break, and Nadal had the match well within his grasp as he served at 5-2. Had he held onto both of his service points from that juncture, he would have sealed the verdict and taken the match in four sets.
Nadal, of course, double faulted off the net chord at 5-2. Then he failed to take control of the next point, and Federer—back to 4-5-- was reborn. Even so, Nadal twice advanced to match point in that tie-break. Federer produced a service winner to save the first one. On the second match point, Nadal sliced his serve wide to the backhand in the advantage court, and Federer’s return was short. Nadal should have ripped his approach crosscourt, and Federer would have been hard pressed to make the passing shot. Instead, the Spaniard guided his forehand with good depth but not enough pace, and Federer majestically drove a backhand pass down the line for a clean winner.
Federer had almost miraculously survived to set up a fifth set. At 2-2 in that final set, there was another rain delay. Somehow, when the players resumed the battle, they played a superb set. Nadal had the unenviable task of serving from behind across the entire final set. At 3-4, he saved a break point; at 4-5, he held on from 30-30 when he was two points away from defeat. And then, at 7-7, Nadal broke Federer. As he served out the match, the sky was growing darker by the moment. There was no time to spare. If Nadal had not held on at 8-7, the match would have been halted and the players would have needed to pick up play the following day.
Nadal made it to match point for the third time at 8-7, 40-30 but Federer unleashed an astonishing backhand return winner crosscourt off a first rate, wide serve. Nadal responded with a service winner to the Federer forehand. And then, at 9:16 in the evening, on his fourth match point, after four hours and 48 minutes of gripping and high quality tennis, Nadal finished it off as Federer netted a forehand crosscourt. Nadal had won 6-4, 6-4, 6-7, 6-7, 9-7.
And so Nadal became the first man since Borg in 1980 to win the French Open and Wimbledon back to back. Over the summer, Nadal took the Olympic Games in Beijing, eclipsing Djokovic in a terrific semifinal, defeating Fernando Gonzalez in the final. Since Monte Carlo, he had won eight of the ten tournaments he had played, and he seemed ready at last to stamp his authority on the U.S. Open. But he was essentially a spent force.
In the semifinals of the U.S. Open, Nadal lost for the first time in six career head-to-head clashes with the rapidly advancing Andy Murray. In the other semifinal, Federer struck down Djokovic in a rematch of the 2007 final. Federer had a day off after his win over Djokovic. Murray had to contend with Nadal over two days as rain intruded. In any case, Federer was primed for the occasion and admirably collected his fifth U.S. Open in a row with a straight set victory over Murray, setting a modern record. Not since Bill Tilden (1920-25) had a man ruled at the American Championships five (or more) years in a row.
Interestingly, that was the only time Federer beat Murray in four 2008 meetings. In the autumn on the indoor circuit, Murray took a pair of compelling contests from Federer, winning in Paris and Shanghai, prevailing 7-5 in the final set on both occasions. Djokovic, meanwhile, reemerged in Shanghai. He had not won a tournament since the Italian Open, but came through indoors to capture the season-ending event by defeating Nikolay Davydenko in the final. Nadal, nursing a knee injury, did not play.
But seldom has the struggle for supremacy been so intriguing at the top of the men’s game. Nadal took the No. 1 ranking away from Federer in August, and--- much more importantly--- closed the year as the top-ranked player in tennis, denying the Swiss stylist a fifth consecutive year at No. 1. Federer narrowly edged past Djokovic for No. 2, and Murray surged to No. 4 in the world. All four men will clearly approach 2009 with vigor and self conviction.
And what of the women? Sharapova was outstanding at the Australian Open, winning the tournament without the loss of a set, erasing Henin, Jelena Jankovic, and Ivanovic in the last three rounds. I thought then that she would have an excellent year, but her shoulder acted up again and by Wimbledon--- where she lost early--- it was apparent that she was not serving with her usual velocity. She missed almost the entire second half of 2008 with that injury. Henin announced her retirement in May, which was a big blow to the women’s game.
Ivanovic--- so impressive in reaching the final of the Australian Open--- went one better in Paris. Her French Open triumph was thoroughly deserved. In the semifinals, she faced her countrywoman Jankovic in a stirring test of skills and wills. Jankovic was agonizingly close to winning, serving with a 4-3 lead in the final set. Ivanovic blasted her way courageously out of that corner and won three games in a row for a place in the final. She was much better on the big points than Dinara Safina in the championship match, and came away victorious in straight sets.
At Wimbledon, Serena and Venus Williams made it to the final, their first “Big Four” title round match in five years. I was convinced Serena would win. She had beaten Venus twice before in the finals of Wimbledon. She had stopped her older sister in three other major finals at the French Open and U.S. Opens in 2002 and the Australian Open in 2003. I believed Serena was the better big match player. But I may have underestimated Venus’s propensity for finding the upper level of her game at Wimbledon.
Venus battled back from 2-4 down in the opening set for a 7-5, 6-4 win. Not only was this the fifth time that Venus had won on the lawns at the All England Club, but it was also her third triumph there in the last four years. She has elevated herself to a place among the elite as one of the best grass court players in the history of the game.
That Venus-Serena collision was first class. But their quarterfinal at the U.S. Open was the match of the year in the women’s game, and the best match the two icons have ever played against each other. Under the lights in New York, Serena somehow overcame Venus 7-6(6), 7-6(7). In the first set, Serena saved two set points, and in the second she saved eight! Venus was playing the better brand of aggressive baseline tennis through most of this encounter, but Serena was superior on defense. The willpower of Serena Williams was almost tangible.
Serena did not waste that triumph. In the semifinals, she easily dismissed Safina in straight sets, and in the final she defeated the tenacious Jankovic 6-4, 7-5. Williams saved four set points in the second set on her way back from 3-5, 0-40, and ran out the match with four consecutive games for her third U.S. Open championship, and her ninth major. She has never looked more exhilarated after a big win.
And yet, Serena did not finish the year at No. 1 in the world as she had hoped she would. That honor belonged to Jankovic, who was incredibly consistent all across the year. Her Grand Slam results were good, including semifinal showings in Melbourne and Paris and her first major final round appearance in New York. She worked hard for her achievement, and finished the year strong with three straight tournament wins near the end of the season indoors. But it was a shame none of the major champions did enough elsewhere to secure the year-end No. 1 ranking. I am a big believer that to stand authentically at the top of the tennis mountain and preside at No. 1, you must win at least one Grand Slam tournament.
It was that kind of year for the women. Ivanovic fell into a terrible slump after Roland Garros. Henin was gone. Sharapova was hurt. Serena was inconsistent and at times indifferent. Jankovic was indisputably the best player week in and week out. But it was not a good thing for the women’s game that she was No. 1 without the necessary credentials. The hope here is that she will maintain her consistency in 2009 and also take a major along the way. Under those circumstances, I would applaud loudly if she concluded the season as the top-ranked woman in the world.

U.S. Open Report

The U.S. Open ended a week ago, and I am still trying to digest it all, to put it in perspective in my mind, to write about it with some clarity and vision. To be sure, this was the biggest win in many ways of Roger Federer’s career. He had not won a major in all of 2008, and this was his last chance. He had won only 2 of the 14 events he had played across the season, and those triumphs were in relatively minor events at Estoril on the clay and Halle on the grass. He had not even won a Masters Series event over the course of this year.
On the other hand, Federer had been a consistent force as usual at the majors. He reached the semifinals of the Australian Open in January, and was runner-up to Rafael Nadal at Roland Garros and Wimbledon. At Wimbledon, he struck back boldly and brilliantly from two sets to love down and a 3-3,0-40 predicament in the third set to force the contest into a thrilling fifth set. Federer was two points away from completing an astounding comeback with Nadal serving at 4-5 in the final set. That match could have turned his year around in a hurry, and it would have been a bruising defeat for Nadal, who had lost an agonizing five set, Centre Court showdown with Federer in the 2007 final.
But once Federer lost that battle on the edge of darkness in arguably the greatest match ever played, he went into a severe tailspin. Across the summer, Gilles Simon upset Federer in his opening round assignment at Toronto. Then Ivo Karlovic ousted Federer in a final set tie-break at Cincinnati after the Swiss maestro won only one match there. And finally, James Blake beat Federer in the quarterfinals of the Olympics in Beijing.
That string of defeats clearly made Federer apprehensive as he approached the Open. In all four of his previous winning campaigns--- from 2004-2007--- he had won at least one hard court tournament over the summer leading up to the big event in New York. And in all of those years he had been the sport’s dominant figure. This time around, circumstances were very different. He had no significant tournament wins to his credit during the year, and his No. 1 world ranking had been taken away over the summer by the redoubtable Nadal. For that wide range of reasons, I believed Federer would not capture a fifth consecutive Open championship.
In the third round of the Open, Federer was stretched to five arduous sets by Igor Andreev, the No. 23 seed from Russia who has one of the bigger forehands in the game and a potent first serve to boot. Andreev won the first set and took Federer into a tie-break in the second. Federer served with a 6-3 lead in that tie-break but lost the next two points on his serve. Andreev was back on serve at 5-6, but his forehand passing shot bounded off the net cord and landed wide. Set to Federer, who eventually came through in a nerve-wracking fifth set.
That was the turning point of the tournament. In the semifinals, Federer stopped No. 3 seed Novak Djokovic in four sets and he halted Andy Murray--- the No. 6 seed--- in a straight set, final round contest. Federer clearly rose to this occasion and played his finest tennis of the season in the last two rounds against quality opposition. He thus garnered another historical achievement of the highest order, becoming the first male or female to win two different Grand Slam events five years in a row. He now has 13 majors and stands only one behind the all-time men’s leader Pete Sampras.
For Nadal, the U.S. Open was a disappointing stretch. He had won eight of his previous ten tournaments--- including Roland Garros, Wimbledon, and the Olympics--- as he headed to New York for the last Grand Slam event of 2008, and Nadal was unmistakably exhausted. He had given so much of himself along the way that he simply could not rouse himself one more time. His intensity was sharply diminished throughout the event. Although he made it to his first semifinal at Flushing Meadows, he was never quite himself. Murray--- who had already upended the surging Juan Martin Del Potro in the quarters--- defeated Nadal for the first time in six career meetings. In that four set duel, Murray played some of the best tennis of his life to prevail.
And so Federer was fortunate not to be facing a man who owned a 12-6 career head-to-head edge over him. Moreover, Nadal is 4-0 against Federer in 2008. Plainly, Federer would have liked his chances better on the hard courts at the Open, and the argument can be made that Nadal remains most vulnerable on faster hard courts. But he did not have what he needed to get to the title round, and Federer cannot be blamed for that. Federer has only a remote chance to overtake Nadal for the year-end No. 1 ranking, but his U.S. Open triumph will undoubtedly carry him into 2009 with a much greater sense of inner conviction and stability.
As for the women, Serena Williams was as worthy a winner as she has ever been. She had lost the Wimbledon final to her sister Venus after fully expecting to claim that crown. She had played top notch tennis over the first half of 2008 on the faster surfaces. And this time around in New York, she threw her entire heart and soul into coming away with a third U.S. Open and ninth career Grand Slam tournament crown. As has often been the case in her past championship runs at majors, Serena was a masterful player in clutch situations.
In her quarterfinal confrontation against Venus Williams under the lights, she saved two set points and then in the second Serena saved eight more to record a dramatic 7-6 (6), 7-6 (7) victory. Venus often had the upper hand in this match. Her ground game was more consistently potent, and she dictated more than her share of fiercely contested backcourt exchanges. But Serena won for three primary reasons: her forehand is a more solid stroke, her second serve is superior, and she plays better defense than Venus across the board.
Serena—fueled by that win--- cast aside an error prone Dinara Safina in a straight set semifinal, and then played another hard fought contest against No. 2 seed Jelena Jankovic in the final. Jankovic was always under duress in the first set before Serena closed it out 6-4. But in the second set, the Serbian exploited her extraordinary ball control and her incomparable defensive skills to build a significant lead. Serena found herself serving at 3-5, 0-40, triple set point down---but the 26-year-old American was outstanding in a tight corner once more. She did not miss a first serve on any of the three set points, and took control of the points emphatically, never giving Jankovic much of an opening.

Williams held on for 4-5 and reached 0-40 with Jankovic serving in the tenth game. Jankovic--- ever the opportunist--- fought her way back and had a set point. Had she held there, had she made Serena play a third set, had she rewarded herself for all her hard effort--- Jankovic might well have gone on to post a three set victory. But she double faulted long, and Williams broke back for 5-5. The last two games contained some of the highest quality tennis of the match, but Serena was too tough when it counted, completing a run of four straight games for a 6-4, 7-5 win. That triumph took Serena back to No. 1 in the world, a status she last held in August of 2003. That is where she belongs, and the hope here is that she will work exceedingly hard to stay up there and keep collecting big prizes in the years ahead.
Federer and Williams have done it again. Can anyone seriously say they did not deserve their high honors?

2008 U.S. OPEN PREVIEW

After a long and debilitating summer for all of the leading players, after an absorbing season across the board, after so many compelling developments in the world of tennis over the course of this year, the last Grand Slam championship of 2008 is upon us. I am convinced this U.S. Open will be a particularly captivating fortnight, and the reasons for that are numerous. This will be the last chance for Roger Federer to win a major in 2008. Rafael Nadal can make a big impression for the first time in New York, where he has never advanced beyond the quarterfinals on the fast hard courts. Novak Djokovic could move one step beyond his spirited run to the final a year ago and thus capture his second Grand Slam event of the year.

Among the women, the windows of possibility are wide open. Defending champion Justine Henin has retired. 2006 victor Maria Sharapova is unable to compete as a nagging shoulder injury keeps her out of the tournament. Despite meeting in the Wimbledon final, Venus and Serena Williams have been struggling as of late, battling injuries and not faring well across the summer. So forecasting the women’s event is an arduous task.

In the final analysis, I believe Nadal is going to claim his third Grand Slam championship of a sparkling year, and his first in the United States. Among the women, I look for Dinara Safina--- the sister of 2000 U.S. Open champion Marat Safin--- to walk away with the top honor.

Let’s look closely at the men’s and women’s draws.

THE MEN

Nadal opens up against a qualifier. Perhaps his first serious test could be in the round of 16 against either No. 14 seed Ivo Karlovic or No. 22 seed Tomas Berdych. Karlovic owns one of the most explosive serves in tennis. The 6’10” Croatian gave Nadal quite a skirmish at Queen’s Club on the grass in June, pushing the Spaniard into a final set tie-break before bowing. Berdych has an impressive history against Nadal and has beaten the world No. 1 three times on hard courts. But Berdych has been an uneven performer in 2008 and his temperament and match playing acumen remain problem areas. Karlovic would be tough to break on the hard courts. But Nadal will prevail against either Berdych or Karlovic in three or possibly four sets to reach the quarterfinals.

In the last eight, Nadal will probably come up against James Blake in what would certainly be an eagerly anticipated battle under the lights. In 2005, Blake upended Nadal decisively in four sets at the Open. In fact, the big hitting American won his first three clashes against the left-handed Spaniard. But Nadal struck back forcefully to beat Blake in hard fought battles earlier this year at Indian Wells and Miami. Both were best of three set showdowns. Blake took a set each time. But Nadal gradually gained the upper hand with the physicality of his game, and found a way to get to Blake’s weaker backhand wing. That will happen again at the Open in a pulsating encounter. Nadal wins in four tough sets.

Who will come through to meet Nadal in the semifinals? That is not an easy question to answer. David Ferrer could get through to that round. The No. 4 seed ousted Nadal in the round of 16 a year ago at night, and went on to reach the semifinals before losing to Djokovic. But Ferrer has not played well since the clay court season. I don’t think Ferrer will go beyond the round of 16 this year. In that round, he would meet the winner of an expected match between No. 16 seed Gilles Simon and No. 17 Juan Martin Del Potro. Del Potro is having a spectacular summer. He has won four tournaments in a row, including two in a row on hard courts. The 6’6", 19-year-old from Argentina will--- in my view--- beat Simon and then stop Ferrer.

That would put Del Potro in the quarterfinals. Waiting for him there will be No. 6 seed Andy Murray. I see Murray setting up a stirring quarterfinal collision with Del Potro. That could well be one of the finest matches of the tournament between the resourceful and cagey Murray and the surging Del Potro. It has the makings of a tight, suspenseful five set match. In the end, I think Murray will prevail after trailing two sets to one. Murray would then take on Nadal in the semifinals.

Murray has never beaten Nadal, but many of their matches have been ferociously contested. At Toronto in their most recent showdown, Nadal won 7-6, 6-3 but it was much tougher than the score indicates. Murray realizes he needs to take bold risks against his determined adversary. He will go for broke off his forehand, which is Murray’s make or break stroke. He will flatten out his two-handed backhand crosscourt, and try to hurt Nadal with that play. But, in the end, Nadal will have too much staying power, and he will get in a very aggressive mode, thus thwarting Murray by moving inside the baseline to dictate points whenever possible with his superb inside-out forehand.

It will be a great contest, but Nadal will come through with a four set triumph to reach the final. On the opposite half of the draw, Roger Federer, in search of a fifth straight title, has a clear and largely unthreatening path toward a semifinal appointment with Djokovic. Federer could meet his Italian Open conqueror Radek Stepanek in the third round, and he could well drop a set in that contest. In the round of 16, Federer figures to confront No. 13 seed Fernando Verdasco, the left-hander from Spain who has moved to a new level this year.

Verdasco will test Federer, blasting away with his huge left-handed forehand. I envision that match going four sets, but Federer’s aggressive, percentage play and clutch serving will give the Swiss maestro a four set victory. Nikolay Davydenko, who has lost to Federer in the semifinals of the last two U.S. Opens, is seeded fifth, and is expected to reach the penultimate round once more. But Davydenko has not been playing anything like a top five player for the past three months. I can’t see how he will get to the semifinals this time around.

Although Frenchman Richard Gasquet is a wildly unpredictable player and a competitor who seldom does justice to his flowing talent, I believe he will nevertheless have one of his better majors in New York. Gasquet, the No. 12 seed, assuming he accounts for Tommy Haas in the opening round, will topple Davydenko in the round of 16.

That would give Gasquet a chance to meet Federer in the quarterfinals. He once ousted the Swiss in 2005 on clay but has never beaten him since. Gasquet will make this one a gripping clash and will release his share of magnificent one-handed, topspin backhand winners. He will go on some inspired streaks of shot making against his adversary, but Federer will weather the storm. Federer will find himself in a scrape, but he will get through it in five sets for a place in the semifinals.

Djokovic, meanwhile, will have a difficult test in the third round against the rapidly ascending Marin Cilic, the No. 30 seed. Djokovic will use his superior backcourt versatility to win in four sets. In the round of 16, Djokovic could meet either Carlos Moya, Safin or No. 15 seed Tommy Robredo. If Safin is the man who makes it through, Djokovic will be primed to make amends for his straight set loss to Safin at Wimbledon. On the hard courts, Djokovic would have the upper hand against Safin, winning in four sets. If he met Moya or Robredo, Djokovic would be victorious in straight sets.

Who will take on Djokovic in the quarters? Possibly Andy Roddick will be his opponent, but then again it could be No. 11 seed Fernando Gonzalez. Roddick has his work cut out for him if he wants to capture a second U.S. Open, and therefore take his first major since he came through at Flushing Meadows in 2003. In the second round, the 26-year-old American might well play Ernests Gulbis of Latvia. Gulbis was a French Open quarterfinalist, and he took a set off Nadal in a hard fought second round match at Wimbledon.

Gulbis could well have an edge over Roddick in the baseline rallies, keeping the American at bay with his variety and capacity for inventiveness. Roddick, though, will win this match because of his ability to release big first serves when he needs them most. Roddick will win a pair of sets in tie-breaks, and take the match in four sets. Roddick and Gonzalez might have a blockbuster in the round of 16. Roddick will be hard pressed to contain Gonzalez off the forehand, and the Chilean will wallop his share of dazzling winners off that side. But somehow Roddick will win that match in five tumultuous sets.

His hopes would then be high if he confronts Djokovic in the quarterfinals, but a grim-faced, determined, purposeful Djokovic will avenge a loss to Roddick earlier this year by prevailing in straight sets. And with that win, Djokovic will earn the right to meet Federer in a rematch of the 2007 Open final. On that occasion, Djokovic served with a 6-5, 40-0 opening set lead. He squandered five set points in that game, lost the set in a tie-break, and then let two more set points slip from his grasp in the second set. Federer--- cool and confident--- came through to win his 12th major event in straight sets over the Serbian.

As he heads into this U.S. Open, Federer does not seem to have much conviction at all. He has won only 2 of 14 tournaments in 2008. And after rallying gamely from two sets down to come within two points of a five set triumph over Nadal in the final of Wimbledon, Federer has not played commandingly. He lost his opening round match in Canada to Simon despite leading 3-1 with a break point for 4-1 in the final set. He lost for the first time to Ivo Karlovic in Cincinnati. And then Blake beat him for the first time in nine career meetings in the quarterfinals of the Olympic Games.

So how would Federer approach a semifinal assignment against Djokovic at the Open? It will be fascinating to find out. After Djokovic opened the 2008 season by knocking out the defending champion Federer in straight sets on his way to securing the title, they have met only once. In Monte Carlo, Djokovic was down a set and a break when he walked off the court, complaining of dizziness. So a U.S. Open skirmish between the No. 2 and No. 3 ranked players in the world will be very revealing. For Federer to prevail, he would need to lift his first serve percentage up awfully high, somewhere around 73%. For Djokovic to emerge victorious, he would need to out-duel Federer in crosscourt backhand exchanges, and exploit his inside-out forehand at every opportunity.

The outcome of this semifinal contest could come down to a few key points. I could see either one of them winning, but will pick Djokovic in five sets. It could be the match of the tournament.

Having come off such a taxing encounter without a day of rest, Djokovic will return the next day and acquit himself well against Nadal. It will be one of their typically high quality battles, much like the semifinal they staged at the Olympic Games which Nadal won 6-4, 1-6, 6-4. In the Open final, Nadal will win the opening set, Djokovic will retaliate by taking the second, and the third set will be critical. Nadal will take that set in a tie-break, and the come through 6-4 in the fourth set.


THE WOMEN

The top half of the draw is where the most intriguing developments will take place. No. 4 seed Serena Williams is seemingly on a collision course for a quarterfinal against her sister Venus, the No. 7 seed. Venus could be in for a difficult time in the round of 16 against No. 9 seed Agnieszka Radwanska. Radwanska toppled defending champion Sharapova at the 2007 Open, and has progressed ever since. She has a reasonably good chance to beat Venus. If Venus does not serve exceptionally well and earn her share of free points, if her explosive yet often vulnerable forehand does not hold up, she could well lose this match. But I pick her to topple Radwanska in three sets.

Serena, too, will have her work cut out for her before she can even think about a potential clash with Venus. In the round of 16, she could confront No. 20 seed Nicole Vaidisova or the perspicacious Agnes Szavay of Hungary, the No. 13 seed. Serena will not defeat either of those players with ease, but she will find a way to win.

Serena fully expected to beat Venus in the Wimbledon final. She led 4-2 in the first set but was beaten convincingly in straight sets as Venus handled the capricious Wimbledon winds better than she did. This time around, they will go three sets before Serena turns the tables on Venus, winning and thus advancing to the semifinals. Top seeded Ana Ivanovic, the French Open champion and Australian Open finalist, should make it to an expected quarterfinal meeting with No. 6 seed Safina.

Ivanovic is a big occasion player who loves the premier stages, but Safina will use her superior defensive skills to win in straight sets. And so Safina would then meet Serena in an enticing semifinal. Serena will dictate sporadically with her assertive, attacking style. She will come forward more, look for openings to hit winners, try to find ways to shorten points with timely bursts of power. But Safina will stand up to the barrage capably, and come from behind to beat the two-time former Open champion in three high quality sets.

Meanwhile, No. 2 seed Jelena Jankovic will be looking to reach her first “Big Four” final, and she is much better off being on the bottom half of the draw. Jankovic will be tested comprehensively by No. 14 seed Victoria Azarenka in the fourth round. Jankovic will need to reach back with her considerable resources to beat a gifted player, but she will do just that. Jankovic will come through in three sets. She will play No. 8 seed Vera Zvonareva in the quarters, and that could be another tough match. Jankovic will win that one in two close sets to reach the semifinals.

In the semifinals, Jankovic will find herself standing across the net from Olympic gold medalist Elena Dementieva, the 2004 U.S. Open finalist. They will test each other to the hilt from the baseline in one bruising rally after another. Dementieva will often control those exchanges with her slightly greater weight of shot and superior depth. But Jankovic will recover from a set down to win in three sets. That will enable her to play a major final at last, and she will be determined to make the most of it.

Safina, however, will be primed for the contest. She will win the U.S. Open Championship with a three set triumph over the No. 2 seed. Safina has been the best woman player since the clay court season commenced in April, so it will be a fitting conclusion to the Grand Slam season for the Russian to claim her first major title.